The Fed Will Hike Rates Too Far and Spur a Global Recession: Survey

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  • The Fed is expected to hike rates too far and tip the global economy into a recession, according to Bloomberg’s survey of economists.
  • Three-quarters see a US recession within the next two years, and two-thirds see a global recession in that same timeframe.
  • Economists also see the Fed lifting benchmark rates to 4.75%-5% by early 2023.

The Fed is expected to hike rates too far and tip the global economy into a recession, according to Bloomberg’s survey of economists.

That comes amid expectations for another aggressive Fed rate hike next week, as central bankers scramble to get a lid on sky-high inflation.

The survey of 40 economists found that the Fed is widely expected to issue a fourth consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points Wednesday at the Federal Open Markets Committee meeting. It’s expected to be followed by a half-point rate hike in December and two quarter-point increases in early 2023.

That would bringing the fed funds target range to 4.75% to 5% from the current rate of 3% to 3.25%.

The median prediction for the peak fed funds rate was 4.75% in Bloomberg’s survey, although some saw the central bank hiking as high as 5% by March of next year.

Fed officials will be skittish about a pivoting monetary policy until inflation shows clear signs of easing, economists said.

That has raised concern that the hawkishness is going overboard, with 75% of surveyed economists seeing the Fed triggering a US recession within the next two years, and two-thirds expecting a global recession in that time.

Those grim forecasts echo that of other market doomsayers, who have been warning investors of a severe recession and potential financial crisis underway.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon predicted earlier this month that the US could spiral into a downturn over the next six to nine months.

Top economist Nouriel Roubini warned that persistent inflation and growing debt put the US at risk for a stagflationary debt crisis, which would slam the US with a macro storm “unlike anything we’ve ever seen.”

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