NFL Week 8 picks against the spread: Seahawks roll on, beat 6-1 Giants, Lions pull off upset

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Anyone who knows what’s going to happen this year in the NFL is either Biff Tannen or, more likely, a liar. This is easily the most cluttered NFL season of the last decade. 

It’s fantastic for watching football. But it’s a disaster for picking football games publicly. Every week that’s felt close to breaking my way flipped late and the ones that didn’t were total disasters. 

To quote Jack Donaghy, you have to go deeper into the crevice. (Liz Lemon would have erroneously pronounced it crevace, but I digress.) To the crevice. 

All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook

NFL Week 8 Picks

Ravens at Buccaneers

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Stream: Amazon Prime Video
   
Follow: CBS Sports App

Featured Game | Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Baltimore Ravens

Two would-be contenders currently floating in the maw of .500 amid this NFL season. The Buccaneers offensive line is still a problem for Tom Brady and the Ravens pass rush is starting to come alive a little bit. But the Ravens pass game is off right now (Lamar hasn’t completed 60 percent of his passes the last three games, doesn’t have multiple pass touchdowns since Week 3 and has 200+ yards just once the last four games), Mark Andrews isn’t guaranteed to play. The Bucs are a pass funnel but the Ravens won’t be able to easily run here. Baltimore does offer Tom Brady the opportunity to get right via the pass game.

The pick: Bucs 24, Ravens 21

Jaguars vs. Broncos (in London)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
Stream: 
ESPN+ 

Featured Game | Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos

I could pepper you with stats about the Broncos defense being good and the Broncos offense being bad and then suggest the Jaguars have a London travel advantage. I could also point out the Jaguars have been terrible lately in terms of doing one important thing: winning football games. But anyone who does high knees down the aisle of an international flight with people he knows should be arrested and thrown in some kind of NATO lifetime prison. For that reason, I take the Jaguars.

The pick: Jaguars 24, Broncos 17

Props, Best Bets: Nah

Cardinals at Vikings

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: 
Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Featured Game | Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals just put up their biggest numbers ever of the Kliff Kingsbury/Kyler Murray “era” — if one liked correlation and causation, one could point to DeAndre Hopkins’ return to the lineup. Nuk looked pretty good and now gets a fun matchup against one of his old teammates (and one of my CBS Sports Podcast Network co-workers!) Patrick Peterson. Hopkins/Justin Jefferson skinny stacks are pretty tasty for DFS. Minnesota’s offense should roll here, so the question is will Kliff/Kyler keep pace. I’d be more inclined to bet on it not happening, even with Hopkins back. 

The Pick: Vikings 27, Cardinals 21

Bets: Vikings -3.5

Raiders at Saints

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Featured Game | New Orleans Saints vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Dennis Allen Revenge Game! Put in the parlay! Andy Dalton is starting against Derek Carr, so expect lots of Spider Man Pointing Memes for this one. This game entirely hinges on the injury report. If Marshon Lattimore doesn’t play, Davante Adams will smash and the Raiders might roll. Dalton is the best QB for the Saints but Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry still aren’t practicing as of Wednesday. I’m backing the Raiders but watch the news.

The Pick: Raiders 21, Saints 17

Bets: Raiders if Lattimore out

Panthers at Falcons

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV:
Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Featured Game | Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers

There isn’t a bigger testament to the NFL than this game. These two teams are not fun, are not good on offense and … YET … this game matters a ton. The Panthers are in first place if they win and the Bucs lose. Atlanta loves to drag teams into an alley and fight. I’m not sure the Panthers want to see that? P.J. Walker IS an upgrade? IDK. Don’t watch this game. I’d lean under. One of these teams might make the playoffs. Be warned. 

The Pick: Falcons 14, Panthers 10

Bets: No sir

Dolphins at Lions

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Featured Game | Detroit Lions vs. Miami Dolphins

The Lions were everyone’s trendy little choice coming into the year and they’re hitting rock bottom as dogs at home to the Dolphins. This is a great spot for Detroit, though. Miami rates out well against the run but not too swell against the pass; everyone remembers them picking off Kenny Pickett as well as Jared Goff’s disastrous last two weeks. D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown matter a LOT here — if both play I love the Lions to just win the game. 

The Pick: Detroit 31, Dolphins 28

Bets: Lions teaser with Cowboys, like Lions +3.5

Bears at Cowboys

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV:
Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Featured Game | Dallas Cowboys vs. Chicago Bears

The Bears are riding high off their MNF win over the Pats, but what a tough letdown here. The Cowboys are the good team you don’t want to talk about. *clears throat* SOMEONE SHOULD HIRE DAN QUINN THIS OFFSEASON PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD. Anyhoo, you can run on Dallas a bit, but the Bears need to be playing from ahead. I wonder how much a win over the Pats coupled with a Robert Quinn trade might linger for this team. Dallas hasn’t given up huge rush totals and if Chicago fumbles five times on Sunday, the Cowboys will roll. Love the under but teasing the Cowboys (I went with Lions) feels like the best move. 

The Pick: Cowboys 21, Bears 10

Bets: Cowboys teaser, like the under 

Patriots at Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Featured Game | New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

The Patriots look absolutely awful. The Jets are rolling. This is the first time since 2001 the Jets have a better record than the Pats when they squared off against each other. If you were going to back the Jets against Bill Belichick as a wounded dog, this would be the spot. It couldn’t be me! Take the Pats before it gets to -3.

The Pick: Patriots 27, Jets 11

Bets: Pats -2.5

Steelers at Eagles 

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV:
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Featured Game | Philadelphia Eagles vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Eagles are rolling right now and look unlikely to face T.J. Watt this week (he’s in the 21-day activation window so he could play technically). They’ve never lost to the Steelers at home in the Super Bowl era! What a fact for people who prefer home win streaks to Super Bowl titles. Pittsburgh has been putrid this season — two wins, one in overtime and the other a 20-18 squeaker over the Buccaneers. The Eagles are obviously undefeated, but their only two wins of more than 10 points were when they thumped WFT and Minny in the ground game. Steelers sneaky backdoor here. 

The Pick: Eagles 24, Steelers 14

Bets: Under 

Titans at Texans

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Featured Game | Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

Pretty sure this line stunk so bad I took the Texans. But I hate it. Derrick Henry OWNS the Texans and they allow the most rush yards per game in the NFL this season. This is a terrible matchup for Houston! Why is the line TWO? I initially took the Texans as a small home dog out of principle because the line is so ridiculous. Forget that. This is a Derrick Henry dance party and the Titans roll. I’m sure I won’t regret that later. (If you play Henry in DFS bring it back with Nico Collins.)

The Pick: Titans 21, Texans 14

Bets: Titans -2

Giants at Seahawks

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: 
Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Featured Game | Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants

Daniel Jones entered rarified air last week — he not only ran for 100 yards for the first time in his career, he’s now the first Giants QB to run for 100 yards in a game since Ed Danowski in 1934. Shoutout to Ed Danowski — two time NFL champion (pre Super Bowl era) and a two-time first-team All-Pro who led the league in passing yards and touchdowns in 1935. His son, John, is a three-time NCAA champ as a lacrosse coach at Duke since 2008 — he has won more games than any D-1 lax coach in history and is the head coach of the US men’s national lacrosse team. Can we fade Daniel Jones knowing these correlated Duke statistics? I’m very tempted not to, especially after hearing Brian Daboll blast Aretha’s “Respect” before Wednesday’s Giants practice, despite this team being 6-1. I’m going against my better judgment and taking the Seahawks and it’s only because of Geno Smith (and also Kenneth Walker, with the Giants maybe susceptible to the run). The Danowski family may roast me accordingly when I’m wrong.

The Pick: Seahawks 24, Giants 20

Bets: Nope

49ers at Rams

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: 
Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Featured Game | Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers

Another kind of foul line flaunting history — the 49ers have won seven of eight against the Rams, with the lone exception last year’s NFC Championship Game, which could have gone either way … Sean McVay’s record off a bye isn’t impressive enough to supersede Kyle Shanahan’s dominance in this matchup, particularly with Christian McCaffrey having a full week to get loose in that Niners playbook. With Deebo Samuel battling a hamstring injury, CMC overs are enticing to say the least.  

The Pick: 49ers 27, Rams 17

Bets: CMC over receptions

Commanders at Colts

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: 
Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Featured Game | Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders

We have been robbed of the ultimate Carson Wentz Revenge Game. I’m so disgusted right now. We don’t even get Matt Ryan with a flex opportunity on a Carson Wentz-less team, as he’s been benched for Sam Ehlinger. I don’t honestly know who made the QB call in Indy and I don’t really get why they’re -3 here, with Ehlinger a complete unknown and the WFT’s capable of slowing down the run. Unless you just KNOW BETTER about the former Texas QB, I think this is a stay away. Good luck to both parties involved! 

The Pick: Washington 21, Indy 17

Bets: No way

Packers at Bills

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: 
NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Featured Game | Buffalo Bills vs. Green Bay Packers

One of the craziest lines you’ll ever see if you follow the NFL for 10 years or longer. Aaron Rodgers, two-time reigning MVP, is a double-digit home dog for the first time in his career … and no one wants to take him. The Bills are coming off a bye, the Packers can’t win a game (losses to the Giants, Jets and WFTs in the last three weeks). Sean McDermott is a machine after the bye and Josh Allen can pull another “Game of Thrones” style elimination of someone standing in the way of him becoming the best quarterback in football. The only reason for taking the points is “Aaron Rodgers shouldn’t be getting this many in prime time” but the Bills are a substantially better football team right now. Based on this season, the Packers win by 21. But I won’t be predicting that.

The Pick: Bills 35, Packers 14

Bets: Over 47.5

Bengals at Browns

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: 
ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Featured Game | Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals

No chance I’m betting against Joe Burrow in prime time. Even if he’s never beaten the Browns. The guy is on a heater right now. Check out the Pick Six Pod YouTube page for better stats. 

The Pick: Bengals 31, Browns 28

Bets: Pass

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