Celtics vs. Bucks prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 6 best bets from model on 86-58 run


The Boston Celtics face a must-win situation on Friday evening in the 2022 NBA playoffs. The Celtics dropped Game 5 at TD Garden to the Milwaukee Bucks, leaving Boston in a 3-2 hole in the best-of-seven matchup. The Bucks can close out the series with a win at home, with the Celtics playing for their playoff lives. Khris Middleton (knee) is out for the Bucks, with Robert Williams (knee) listed as questionable for the Celtics.

Tipoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Milwaukee. Caesars Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as the 1.5-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 211 in the latest Bucks vs. Celtics odds. Before making any Celtics vs. Bucks picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the fourth full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Bucks, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Bucks vs. Celtics:

  • Celtics vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -1.5 
  • Celtics vs. Bucks over-under: 211 points 
  • Celtics vs. Bucks money line: Bucks -125, Celtics +105 
  • BOS: The Celtics are 6-3 against the spread in playoff games 
  • MIL: The Bucks are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games

Featured Game | Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics

Why the Celtics can cover

Boston is out-scoring Milwaukee in the series, even with a 3-2 deficit. The Celtics have strong offensive traits, dating back to a strong offensive profile with 113.6 points per 100 possessions during the regular season. Boston is No. 2 in the 2022 NBA playoffs in assisting on 64.8 percent of field goals, and the Celtics have a stellar 58.1 percent true shooting mark in the postseason. 

On the defensive end, the Celtics are unquestionably elite, including a 103.7 defensive rating in the series. Milwaukee is making only 42.4 percent of field goal attempts and 32.4 percent of 3-point attempts in the series, and Boston is giving up only 20.8 assists per game in the playoffs and 19.6 assists per game to the Bucks. Boston also led the NBA in defensive rating during the regular season, yielding only 106.2 points per 100 possessions. That overall success came with balanced and elite characteristics, including league-leading metrics in field goal percentage allowed, 3-point percentage allowed, 2-point percentage allowed and assists allowed.

Why the Bucks can cover

The Bucks are led by arguably the best player in the NBA in Giannis Antetokounmpo. The former NBA MVP scored 40 points to lead Milwaukee to a pivotal win in Game 5 and, for the entire playoffs, Antetokounmpo is leading the league in averaging 31.3 points per game. Antetokounmpo is generating 11.3 free throw attempts per game, putting pressure on opposing defenses, and he is a top-tier defender to go along with 13.0 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game in playoff action. Antetokounmpo is also flanked by a dynamic two-way guard in Jrue Holiday, and a roster similar to the team that won the 2021 NBA title. 

Milwaukee finished in the top five of the NBA in offensive rating this season, scoring more than 1.14 points per possession, and the Bucks connected on 36.6 percent of 3-point shots and 54.4 percent of 2-point shots in 2021-22. On defense, Milwaukee is stingy to say the least, leading the NBA playoffs in defensive rating, defensive rebound rate, field goal percentage allowed and free throw attempts allowed over a two-round sample.

How to make Celtics vs. Bucks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, with 10 players projected to score more than 11 points in the simulations. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s Bucks vs. Celtics Game 6 pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Celtics vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Celtics vs. Bucks spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.